Executive Summary The June CPI shock is the story: headline fell -0.4% MoM (consensus -0.2%), the largest monthly decline since April 2020, dropping YoY inflation to 3.5% from 4.2% (consensus 3.8%). Core was 0.0% MoM, 2.6% YoY. Odds of a 25bp Fed hike at the July 28–29 meeting collapsed from ~42% M
@avifelman·Jul 15, 2026·2 sources·neutral
Read articleAI Summary
June CPI declined more than expected, reducing Fed hike odds, while US escalated military strikes and a naval blockade against Iran.
All Sources
Executive Summary The June CPI shock is the story: headline fell -0.4% MoM (consensus -0.2%), the largest monthly decline since April 2020, dropping YoY inflation to 3.5% from 4.2% (consensus 3.8%). Core was 0.0% MoM, 2.6% YoY. Odds of a 25bp Fed hike at the July 28–29 meeting collapsed from ~42% M
@avifelman
Jul 15, 2026
Executive Summary The June CPI shock is the story: headline fell -0.4% MoM (consensus -0.2%), the largest monthly decline since April 2020, dropping YoY inflation to 3.5% from 4.2% (consensus 3.8%). Core was 0.0% MoM, 2.6% YoY. Odds of a 25bp Fed hike at the July 28–29 meeting collapsed from ~42% M
@avifelman
Jul 15, 2026